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The Theory That Would Not Die
Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, "The Theory That Would Not Die" is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest scientific controversies of all time. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security. "The Theory That Would Not Die" is a vivid account of the generations-long dispute over one of the greatest breakthroughs in the history of applied mathematics and statistics. -
与天为敌
内容简介 该书是一部轰动世界金融界的畅销书。作者通过考察人类探索风险的艰 难历程,使用一个个精心整理的真实故事,描述了希腊哲学家和阿拉伯数学 家、商人和科学家、举世闻名的思想家和虽名不见经传但颇有灵感的业余学 者在帮助发现使将来为今天服务、用选择和决策替代在命运面前束手无策等 现代手段过程中的趣闻佚事,旨在向我们说明:风险不仅是可以认识的,也是 可以控制和掌握的;风险并不可怕,在现代社会里,承受有效的风险往往可以 得到高额的回报,管理风险已经成为挑战与机遇的同义词。所有这些对于我 们更好地了解风险、认识风险以至最终控制风险会有很大帮助。 本书适合高等院校经济管理类师生及广大普通读者阅读、参考。 -
随机致富的傻瓜
《财富》评选的75本商务人士必读书之一。股市的大起大落只发生在须臾之间,借鉴塔勒布的操作手法(这也是不少操盘手正在做的),您将能避免风险,并在黑天鹅出现时大赚一笔。说股票交易者应该人手一册本书绝对不过分。 人的本性经常低估随机现象,我们很需要这样的书。妙趣横生、清新隽永且独具一格,令人玩味无穷。——罗伯特·希勒(畅销书《非理性繁荣》作者) 本书常识性知识俯拾即是。如果你是交易员、科学家,或者哈佛律师,本书必读。——保罗·威尔莫特(《衍生性金融商品》作者) 简单一句话:这本书让人看得入迷。埋首其中,你对生命(以及你的钱财)的了解将大为增进,这可不是随机性的结果。——伯恩斯坦(彼得·伯恩斯坦公司总裁) 当还是股市中的一位菜鸟级别的交易员时,作者塔勒布曾成功地在一次股灾中得以幸免,他潜心半年研究这场风暴,认为他的逃脱不是有比其他人高明之处,完全是运气好——运气在金融市场中起着重要的作用,但是人们却总是过低地估计了随机作用,忍不住想对事物做出自己的解释,这就形成了种种迷信。由此他写作了这样一部关于运气——随机性的书。 塔勒布指出:在基因上,我们仍和未开化的土著人很接近。我们的信念的形成,充满着迷信──即使现今也不例外(或许必须说,尤以今天为甚)。某一天,原始部落的某个人抓了鼻子之后不久,雨开始下了,于是他煞费苦心发展出一套抓鼻子祈雨的方法。同样的,我们会把经济的繁荣归功于联邦储备委员会降低利率;或者一家公司经营成功,竟和新总裁“走马上任”有关。类似风马牛不相及的事件屡屡被我们扯上联系,并导致我们在人生的重要抉择关头步步踏错,先机尽失。 生活中随机性无处不在,即使是专业的数学家,并精于概率的计算,也往往会被随机性所捉弄,塔勒布最后建言:我们虽然无法避免随机性,但我们可以学着接受它。塔勒布的理念已经自成一派,世界上相当多的股票交易员都承认受到他理念的影响——从稀有事件中获取收益。这绝对是每一位证券交易者都应该珍藏的一本书! -
Randomized Algorithms
For many applications, a randomized algorithm is either the simplest or the fastest algorithm available, and sometimes both. This book introduces the basic concepts in the design and analysis of randomized algorithms. The first part of the text presents basic tools such as probability theory and probabilistic analysis that are frequently used in algorithmic applications. Algorithmic examples are also given to illustrate the use of each tool in a concrete setting. In the second part of the book, each chapter focuses on an important area to which randomized algorithms can be applied, providing a comprehensive and representative selection of the algorithms that might be used in each of these areas. Although written primarily as a text for advanced undergraduates and graduate students, this book should also prove invaluable as a reference for professionals and researchers. -
概率论习题集
《概率论习题集》主要内容:施利亚耶夫是现代概率论奠基人、前苏联科学院院士、著名数学家A.H.柯尔莫戈洛夫的学生,在概率统计界和金融数学界影响极大。大部分习题都附有提示。在附录中还解释了《概率论习题集》所用到的基本符号。并对与《概率论习题集》内容有关的概率论、组合论以及位势理论的基本概念作了简要的介绍。 -
The Probabilistic Method Second Edition
The leading reference on probabilistic methods in combinatorics-now expanded and updated When it was first published in 1991, The Probabilistic Method became instantly the standard reference on one of the most powerful and widely used tools in combinatorics. Still without competition nearly a decade later, this new edition brings you up to speed on recent developments, while adding useful exercises and over 30ew material. It continues to emphasize the basic elements of the methodology, discussing in a remarkably clear and informal style both algorithmic and classical methods as well as modern applications. The Probabilistic Method, Second Edition begins with basic techniques that use expectation and variance, as well as the more recent martingales and correlation inequalities, then explores areas where probabilistic techniques proved successful, including discrepancy and random graphs as well as cutting-edge topics in theoretical computer science. A series of proofs, or "probabilistic lenses," are interspersed throughout the book, offering added insight into the application of the probabilistic approach. New and revised coverage includes: * Several improved as well as new results * A continuous approach to discrete probabilistic problems * Talagrand's Inequality and other novel concentration results * A discussion of the connection between discrepancy and VC-dimension * Several combinatorial applications of the entropy function and its properties * A new section on the life and work of Paul Erdös-the developer of the probabilistic method