In this irreverent and illuminating book, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, change, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious cases, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance. The rise and fall of your favorite movie star of the most reviled CEO--in fact, of all our destinies--reflects as much as planning and innate abilities. Even the legendary Roger Maris, who beat Babe Ruth's single-season home run record, was in all likelihood not great but just lucky. And it might be shocking to realize that you are twice as likely to be killed in a car accident on your way to buying a lottery ticket than you are to win the lottery. How could it have happened that a wine was given five out of five stars, the highest rating, in one journal and in another it was called the worst wine of the decade? Mlodinow vividly demonstrates how wine ratings, school grades, political polls, and many other things in daily life are less reliable than we believe. By showing us the true nature of change and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives fresh insight into what is really meaningful and how we can make decisions based on a deeper truth. From the classroom to the courtroom, from financial markets to supermarkets, from the doctor's office to the Oval Office, Mlodinow's insights will intrigue, awe, and inspire. Offering readers not only a tour of randomness, chance, and probability but also a new way of looking at the world, this original, unexpected journey reminds us that much in our lives is about as predictable as the steps of a stumbling man fresh from a night at the bar.

Barry Cohen教授所著《心理统计学》（第三版）是一本广受欢迎的心理统计学教材。它是一本非常全面的心理统计学教材，既包括入门性的统计学知识（如零假设检验的基本概念和局限性），也包括心理统计的高级内容（如复杂设计方差分析和多元回归分析）。 虽然是一本统计教材，但作者无时不考虑结合研究设计来解释有关概念，因此该书的重点是讲授各个统计公式或手段的适用条件以及如何解释统计结果的意义。作者实验心理学博士出身，在纽约大学教授心理学统计学超过30年，通过阅读本书，你会深刻体会“将实验设计与数据处理相结合”的妙处。 这本书的另一个优点是，它既适合于那些对统计不甚了解的人，也适合于专业研究人员（包括硕士生和博士生）。它每章基本上包括ABC三个部分，每个部分是相对独立的，初学者可以只看A和B部分的内容；而在C部分（虽不能只说更高级），作者介绍了很多最近才出现的分析手段，也反映了数据处理的一些发展趋势，对心理学研究者非常有帮助。

Review Journal of Modern History : The book is a pleasure to read: the prose sparkles; the protagonists are vividly drawn; the illustrations are handsome and illuminating; the insights plentiful and sharp. This will remain the definitive work on the early development of mathematical statistics for some time to come. --Lorraine J. Daston Science : An exceptionally searching, almost loving, study of the relevant inspirations and aberrations of its principal characters James Bernoulli, de Moivre, Bayes, Laplace, Gauss, Quetelet, Lexis, Galton, Edgeworth, and Pearson, not neglecting a grand supporting cast...The definitive record of an intellectual Golden Age, an overoptimistic climb to a height not to be maintained. --M. Stone New York Times Book Review : One is tempted to say that the history of statistics in the nineteenth century will be associated with the name Stigler. --Morris Kline Contemporary Psychology : In this tour de force of careful scholarship, Stephen Stigler has laid bare the people, ideas, and events underlying the development of statistics...He has written an important and wonderful book...Sometimes Stigler's prose is so evocative it is almost poetic. --Howard Wainer Review Stigler's book exhibits a rare combination of mastery of technical materials, sensitivity to conceptual milieu, and near exhaustive familiarity with primary sources. An exemplary study --Lorraine Daston

Praise for the First Edition "This is a superb text from which to teach categorical data analysis, at a variety of levels. . . [t]his book can be very highly recommended." — Short Book Reviews "Of great interest to potential readers is the variety of fields that are represented in the examples: health care, financial, government, product marketing, and sports, to name a few." — Journal of Quality Technology "Alan Agresti has written another brilliant account of the analysis of categorical data." —The Statistician The use of statistical methods for categorical data is ever increasing in today's world. An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis, Second Edition provides an applied introduction to the most important methods for analyzing categorical data. This new edition summarizes methods that have long played a prominent role in data analysis, such as chi-squared tests, and also places special emphasis on logistic regression and other modeling techniques for univariate and correlated multivariate categorical responses. This Second Edition features: Two new chapters on the methods for clustered data, with an emphasis on generalized estimating equations (GEE) and random effects models A unified perspective based on generalized linear models An emphasis on logistic regression modeling An appendix that demonstrates the use of SAS(r) for all methods An entertaining historical perspective on the development of the methods Specialized methods for ordinal data, small samples, multicategory data, and matched pairs More than 100 analyses of real data sets and nearly 300 exercises Written in an applied, nontechnical style, the book illustrates methods using a wide variety of real data, including medical clinical trials, drug use by teenagers, basketball shooting, horseshoe crab mating, environmental opinions, correlates of happiness, and much more. An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis, Second Edition is an invaluable tool for social, behavioral, and biomedical scientists, as well as researchers in public health, marketing, education, biological and agricultural sciences, and industrial quality control.