The authors of this ambitious book address a fundamental political question: why are leaders who produce peace and prosperity turned out of office while those who preside over corruption, war, and misery endure? Considering this political puzzle, they also answer the related economic question of why some countries experience successful economic development and others do not.The authors construct a provocative theory on the selection of leaders and present specific formal models from which their central claims can be deduced. They show how political leaders allocate resources and how institutions for selecting leaders create incentives for leaders to pursue good and bad public policy. They also extend the model to explain the consequences of war on political survival. Throughout the book, they provide illustrations from history, ranging from ancient Sparta to Vichy France, and test the model against statistics gathered from cross-national data. The authors explain the political intuition underlying their theory in nontechnical language, reserving formal proofs for chapter appendixes. They conclude by presenting policy prescriptions based on what has been demonstrated theoretically and empirically.

本书分三部分介绍古今中外的研究方法，即古代中国的研究方法，近现代西方的研究方法，以及马克思主义的研究方法。通过对这些方法的介绍和阐述，帮助学生梳理研究思路，找到研究项目和问题的正确方法，从而树立正确的方法观、价值观、世界观。

Written by one of the preeminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, economics, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Judea Pearl presents and unifies the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual, and structural approaches to causation and devises simple mathematical tools for studying the relationships between causal connections and statistical associations. Cited in more than 2,100 scientific publications, it continues to liberate scientists from the traditional molds of statistical thinking. In this revised edition, Judea Pearl elucidates thorny issues, answers readers' questions, and offers a panoramic view of recent advances in this field of research. Causality will be of interest to students and professionals in a wide variety of fields. Dr Judea Pearl has received the 2011 Rumelhart Prize for his leading research in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and systems from The Cognitive Science Society.

为什么当代社会中的许多关键问题都无法解决？ 在本书中，通过《我对你错》这个具有典型意义的书名，世界创新思维大师爱德华·德·博诺向读者充分暴露了人类过分依赖传统逻辑思维而导致的不足和弊端。他指出，传统思维虽然曾经为人类收获了累累硕果，但如今已经无法解决世界面临的诸多紧迫问题，也无法更好地帮助我们应对政治、经济、社会以及个人生活中的重重困局。改变势在必行，一场新的文艺复兴已经悄然开启。 德·博诺认为，在传统思维中，人们拥有的是“岩石逻辑”——岩石具有固定的形状，它坚硬、棱角分明、很难变形。这形象地揭示了取决于二分法的传统逻辑思维系统的特征，即强调对，错、是，非、高兴／伤心、有罪，无辜的“刀刃区分”。这种冲突性的思维模式必然导致僵化和对立，无法适应今天快速变化的世界。 而在本书中，德·博诺将人类的大脑描述了为一个可以自我组织的信息系统，它能使感知、记忆和人生经验等在我们的思考中扮演更重要的角色，而减少对逻辑、推理及争辩的依靠。透过大脑独特的运作方式，德·博诺提出了“水的逻辑”——水是流动变化的，我们关注的不是水“是”什么，而是水将“流向”何方。水的逻辑不具有绝对性，而是会随着环境和情景的改变而改变。德·博诺希望能用这种建立在感知基础上的“水的逻辑”，代替人们已经习以为常的、富于对立性的“岩石逻辑”。 寻找一种具有调适性而非冲突性，富于想象力和创造力而非千篇一律、模式化的方法，并引领人们走向更有成效、更具建设性的文明，这正是本书的最终目的和最大价值所在。 本书综合神经科学、心理学、哲学、社会学、经济学等众多学科知识，涉及政治、经济、社会事务、世界冲突和个人生活等方面的核心话题，因此得到三位诺贝尔奖得主的倾心推荐，不愧为一部大师级的经典著作。

《经济学方法论的新趋势》分“证伪主义：赞同与反对”、“关于经济学的哲学观点”、“作为话语的经济学”等四部分，收录了十七篇经济学方面的文章。《经济学方法论的新趋势》是由经济科学出版社出版。

本书是对人类学知识生产方式所作的伦理-哲学反思，将人类学田野工作本身作为研究对象加以探讨。作者描述了自己与作为调查对象的当地人交往的过程，并指出这种过程会在很大程度上影响人类学家对资料的搜集与分析。