一段探究隐秘心理力量的迷人之旅， 即将改变你对自己惯常思维方式的看法！ 为什么一名经验老到的飞行员会失去理智地在大雾中强行起飞，以致造成一起恶性撞机事故？将一只持续下跌的股票卖出或者结束一段注定会破裂的关系，为什么会如此之难？为什么一张20美元的钞票竟会被拍卖到204美元？为什么只是因为这个建议来自“重要的”人物，我们便会言听计从？为什么当我们身处危险情境时，更容易坠入情网？针对打折商品，你为什么会不太珍惜？生理与心理有什么样的有趣联系？当你在大海中游泳时遇到了潜流，拼命地往岸边游能顺利逃生吗？当你周围的人都赞成同一个答案时，你会做何选择? 著名组织思想家奥瑞•布莱福曼和他的弟弟心理学家罗姆•布莱福曼，在书中为我们阐释了所有这些问题背后所隐藏的潜在心理力量。 利用社会心理学、行为经济学和组织行为学领域的最新研究成果，《摇摆》揭示出了影响我们个人生活和商业生活所有方面的动态力量，这些力量包括损失厌恶、表面现象的错觉、第一印象的误导、激励的负面效果、公平感的巨大作用、由生理原因产生的引力、群体的影响，等等。 不时会出现这样一本书——它不但会挑战我们的世界观，而且还能改变我们的思维方式。在《摇摆》中，两位作者不但为多种多样的非理性行为提出了合理的解释，而且还为读者指明了避免屈从于它们诱惑的道路——将自己的眼光放长远；摈弃表面印象；注意从众心理；看重反对者的意见；处理好自己的公平感觉；对即将到来的损失，要冷静判断，并准备足够的承受气魄。

In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive science, biology, and other fields largely ignore these real constraints and instead assume agents with perfect information and unlimited time. About forty years ago, Herbert Simon challenged this view with his notion of "bounded rationality." Today, bounded rationality has become a fashionable term used for disparate views of reasoning. This book promotes bounded rationality as the key to understanding how real people make decisions. Using the concept of an "adaptive toolbox," a repertoire of fast and frugal rules for decision making under uncertainty, it attempts to impose more order and coherence on the idea of bounded rationality. The contributors view bounded rationality neither as optimization under constraints nor as the study of people?s reasoning fallacies. The strategies in the adaptive toolbox dispense with optimization and, for the most part, with calculations of probabilities and utilities. The book extends the concept of bounded rationality from cognitive tools to emotions; it analyzes social norms, imitation, and other cultural tools as rational strategies; and it shows how smart heuristics can exploit the structure of environments.

With a new preface by the author, this reissue of Thomas Sowell's classic study of decision making updates his seminal work in the context of The Vision of the Anointed . Sowell, one of America's most celebrated public intellectuals, describes in concrete detail how knowledge is shared and disseminated throughout modern society. He warns that society suffers from an ever-widening gap between firsthand knowledge and decision making -- a gap that threatens our very freedom because actual knowledge gets replaced by assumptions based on an abstract and elitist social vision of what ought to be. Knowledge and Decisions , a winner of the 1980 Law and Economics Center Prize, was heralded as a "landmark work" and selected for this prize "because of its cogent contribution to our understanding of the differences between the market process and the process of government." In announcing the award, the center acclaimed Sowell, whose "contribution to our understanding of the process of regulation alone would make the book important, but in reemphasizing the diversity and efficiency that the market makes possible, [his] work goes deeper and becomes even more significant." "In a wholly original manner [Sowell] succeeds in translating abstract and theoretical argument into a highly concrete and realistic discussion of the central problems of contemporary economic policy." --F. A. Hayek "This is a brilliant book. Sowell illuminates how every society operates. In the process he also shows how the performance of our own society can be improved." --Milton Friedman

作为大师中的大师，詹姆斯•马奇在斯坦福大学讲授的决策论广受欢迎。决策是人类的核心活动，它对个体、群体、组织和社会生活至关重要。本书并非对决策的初级介绍，而是对决策的产生过程进行深入剖析，运用社会学和行为学的理论研究各种不同情境下的决策，从而使现实世界中作决策的人既能从参与者的角度又能从旁观者的角度来理解这一过程。 本书读来富有新意。马奇为书中深刻的理论佐以大量饶有趣味、生动形象的例子，既便于读者理解和在实践中运用这些理论，又为勤于思考的读者带来仔细品读的兴致。

德国销量40万册的超级畅销书《清醒思考的艺术》下篇。 换个思维，掌握“明智行动的艺术”，做同一件事，就会事半功倍！ 为什么一个差劲的理由，也比没有理由好？为什么“最后的机会”总是让人失去理智？有什么办法可以让一份成绩单刹时亮眼？为什么人们打算做的事情总是太多？为什么说想要真正了解世界，就要少读新闻？ 本书继续跨界混搭范儿，融合了经济、管理、心理诸学科的前沿智慧，以52个既科学又轻松，既严肃又有趣的精致篇章，总结了人们行动时常犯的错误，将“谋定而后动”落实到可操作的细节。《明智行动的艺术》犹如一面镜子，以之反思，时时学习，就能做到少犯错误，多出成绩。 全书以52幅诙谐生动的手绘彩插，与52个行为错误映照，读来既入眼又入心。

Product Description The first book to use the unexpected discoveries of neuroscience to help us make the best decisions. Since Plato, philosophers have described the decision-making process as either rational or emotional: we carefully deliberate, or we blink and go with our gut. But as scientists break open the mind's black box with the latest tools of neuroscience, they re discovering that this is not how the mind works. Our best decisions are a finely tuned blend of both feeling and reason and the precise mix depends on the situation. When buying a house, for example, it s best to let our unconscious mull over the many variables. But when we re picking a stock, intuition often leads us astray. The trick is to determine when to use the different parts of the brain, and to do this, we need to think harder (and smarter) about how we think. Jonah Lehrer arms us with the tools we need, drawing on cutting-edge research as well as the real-world experiences of a wide range of deciders from airplane pilots and hedge fund investors to serial killers and poker players. Lehrer shows how people are taking advantage of the new science to make better television shows, win more football games, and improve military intelligence. His goal is to answer two questions that are of interest to just about anyone, from CEOs to firefighters: How does the human mind make decisions? And how can we make those decisions better?