Donald Trump’s presidency has raised a question that many of us never thought we’d be asking: Is our democracy in danger? Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have spent more than twenty years studying the breakdown of democracies in Europe and Latin America, and they believe the answer is yes. Democracy no longer ends with a bang—in a revolution or military coup—but with a whimper: the slow, steady weakening of critical institutions, such as the judiciary and the press, and the gradual erosion of long-standing political norms. The good news is that there are several exit ramps on the road to authoritarianism. The bad news is that, by electing Trump, we have already passed the first one.

Drawing on decades of research and a wide range of historical and global examples, from 1930s Europe to contemporary Hungary, Turkey, and Venezuela, to the American South during Jim Crow, Levitsky and Ziblatt show how democracies die—and how ours can be saved.

2015年，美国珀修斯集团基础书局首次出版英文版。

2017年，世界知识出版社首次出版中文版。

安德鲁‧马歇尔（Andrew Marshall）是五角大楼的一个传奇。他任净评估办公室（五角大楼内部智库）主任一职逾40载，辅佐12任国防部长和8任总统，始终位居美国战略思想前沿。在兰德公司的黄金时代（20世纪50年代至60年代初），马歇尔帮助确定了美国核战略的基本理念，这些理念直到今天仍然适用。赴五角大楼任职后，他又率先提出了“净评估”的概念和方法，由此构建了分析美国与苏联之间长期军事竞争的新的理论框架。冷战结束后，马歇尔通过“净评估”成功预测了军事方面新兴的颠覆性转变，包括新军事革命和中国作为美国重大战略竞争对手的崛起。

马歇尔之前的两位部下安德鲁‧克雷佩尼维奇（Andrew Krepinevich）和巴里‧沃茨（Barry Watts）在写作过程中主要采访了马歇尔本人，掌握大量一手史料，同时还得到史密斯基金会的资助，获取大量有价值的资料。

本书首次通过近半个世纪以来的一些关键的事件和具有深远影响力的人物来讲述马歇尔的故事。从大萧条时期在底特律的成长经历，到*终成为有影响力的美国

和平与战争之间：国际危机的性质》对突发性国的际危机的类型学进行研究，通过对历史上27个案例的剖析，比较分析了国际危机的根源、政治和结果。作者提出三种不同危机类型及相应的国内国际条件。通过运用信息处理的认知模型和动机模型，考察了危机与国际冲突根本原因之间的关系，解释了决策者在这些危机管理中为何表现出不善于学习和做出错误指导等问题。

China's reform era is ending. Core factors that characterized it-political stability, ideological openness, and rapid economic growth-are unraveling.

Since the 1990s, Beijing's leaders have firmly rejected any fundamental reform of their authoritarian one-party political system, even as a decades-long boom has reshaped China's economy and society. On the surface, their efforts have been a success. Political turmoil has toppled former Communist East bloc regimes, internal unrest overtaken Middle East nations, and populist movements risen to challenge established Western democracies. China, in contrast, has appeared a relative haven of stability and growth.

But as Carl Minzner shows, a closer look at China's reform era reveals a different truth. Over the past three decades, a frozen political system has fueled both the rise of entrenched interests within the Communist Party itself, and the systematic underdevelopment of institutions of governance among state and society at large. Economic cleavages have widened. Social unrest has worsened. Ideological polarization has deepened.

Now, to address these looming problems, China's leaders are progressively cannibalizing institutional norms and practices that have formed the bedrock of the regime's stability in the reform era. Technocratic rule is giving way to black-box purges; collective governance sliding back towards single-man rule. The post-1978 era of "reform and opening up" is ending. China is closing down. Uncertainty hangs in the air as a new future slouches towards Beijing to be born. End of an Era explains how China arrived at this dangerous turning point, and outlines the potential outcomes that could result.

Review

"Mr. Minzner's arguments are lucid, readable and well-sourced, making this compact volume compulsory reading for those who continue to insist that China's authoritarian governance might be an improvement on democracy." -Wall Street Journal

"Captivating and essential reading for all China watchers." -Library Journal

"Carl Minzner takes the measure of 'China's rise' in a highly readable, yet penetrating, analysis that accurately gauges its weaknesses as well as strengths." -Jerome A. Cohen, Professor of Law and Faculty Director, U.S.-Asia Law Institute, New York University School of Law, and Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

"A concise, authoritative, and impartial analysis of the challenges China faces as it tries to balance a vibrant, dynamic, ever evolving economy and society, with a static, centralised political system. This study asks fundamental, hard questions about whether this perpetual squaring of the circle can actually ever be achieved. Its conclusions are sobering and thought provoking." -Kerry Brown, Professor of Chinese Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute, King's College, London

"This book is a must-read, conversation changing book for anyone interested in China. Meticulously researched and written in a highly accessible style, End of an Era argues that China's reform era is ending. The book details how over the last decade changes in China's society, economy, politics and ideology have coalesced in a massive, yet unnoticed, transition, ending the reform era and endangering the country's further development. The book presents a shocking message that has repercussions for virtually anyone on the globe whose lives have become intertwined with the Chinese political economy." -Benjamin Van Rooij, John S. & Marilyn Long Chair Professor, University of California, Irvine

"In learned, provocative, yet engaging ways, Carl Minzner draws from his decades of China-watching expertise to explain the deeply unsettled and unsettling trajectory of contemporary China. Reflecting on the underlying social, economic, political and spiritual angst in China today, and the Party-state's tightening grip in response, the book not only convincingly explains the iEnd of an Erar, but foresees a darkening future with serious implications for China and the world." -Bates Gill, Professor of Asia-Pacific Security Studies, Macquarie University

在这部影响越来越广泛，在西方国际关系教材中独树一帜的教科书中，作者沿古典均势时期、一战、二战、冷战，到冷战后的全球化、信息化的历史脉络，介绍了主要国际关系流派的理论和方法。不仅为学生们提供了探索世界政治的有效途径，而且使相关读者亦能从中受到启发，堪称一部优秀的国际关系教材。

本书简明扼要、深入透彻地介绍了世界政治研究。它熟练地把历史与理论结合起来，评说国际行为体之间的冲突与合作，从而为学生提供了一个理解当今国际事务的框架。

▌所有權力皆來自人民，但何處是它的去向？

——德國劇作家｜貝托爾特•布萊希特（Bertolt Brecht）▌

——當民粹主義浪潮成為席捲世界的海嘯——

民粹到底是民主最正統的聲音？還是民主面臨的最大危機？

◤充滿政治激情與煽動口號的民粹時代降臨◢

美國總統川普、英國脫歐領袖法拉奇、法國反移民大將勒龐、

前委瑞內拉總統查維茲、土耳其總統艾爾多安——民粹領袖在世界各地崛起。

但我們真的了解民粹主義嗎？為何它是如此迷人又危險的存在？

每一個批評體制內菁英的人，就應該被稱為民粹主義者嗎？民粹政治行動者都是右派嗎？民粹主義讓政府更接近民眾？「真正的人民」到底是誰，誰又可以為人民發聲？在自由民主制度正面對風起雲湧挑戰的當下，探究這些問題從未像現在這麼具有急迫性。

由普林斯頓大學政治學教授——揚—威爾納‧穆勒（Jan-Werner Müller）所撰寫的《解讀民粹主義》（WHAT IS POPULISM?）以歷史為基礎，援引拉丁美洲、歐洲與美國的例子，定義了民粹主義的特徵，以及探索民粹主義在我們這個時代之所以能勝出的更深層原因：民粹主義者的樣貌究竟為何？使用怎樣的政治語言？掌權後會有哪些典型作為？又該如何對抗民粹主義者並與其對話？作者穆勒主張，民粹主義的核心就是反對多元主義。民粹主義者總是會宣稱，他們（而且只有他們）代表人民以及人民的真正利益。他也說明，和傳統觀點相反，民粹主義者可以根據他們是人民獨家的道德代表而執政；如果民粹主義者擁有足夠的權力，最後將建立一個威權國家，並排除所有不被認為是適當「人民」一分子的人。

現今的民粹主義者正嘗試運用符合民主價值的政治語言，實現一個公然反對民主的政治理想。透過《解讀民粹主義》書中極具啟發性的論點，我們不僅可以認識民粹對民主制度的威脅為何，並促使大家反思該如何修正失能的民主代議制度。自由民主人士究竟該如何應對民粹主義者，特別是在當他們宣稱專為「沉默的多數」或「真正的人民」而發聲的時候。本書不僅為讀者釐清民粹主義的樣貌和特徵，也幫助讀者進一步理解這個民粹主義當道的時代。

好評推薦

一本必讀的書。

──《衛報》（The Guardian）

要理解川普的訴求，最有用的書就是普林斯頓大學政治學家揚—威爾納‧穆勒寫的《解讀民粹主義》在這本重要的書中，穆勒定義了民粹主義最顯著的特徵：反菁英、反多元、排他性，並透過這個架構來解釋川普與其他民粹主義者的行為。這是一本可以快速閱讀的書，而且每一頁都值得用心領略。

──《華盛頓郵報》（The Washington Post）

對於探討一個出了名不穩固、但又不可或缺的政治概念來說，這是一本非常睿智的書。對任何想要了解橫掃歐洲與美國的政治衝突之根源與本質的人來說，揚—威爾納‧穆勒對民粹主義的廣泛評論，將能帶來很多指導與挑戰。

──《民粹主義信念：在美國的歷史》（The Populist Persuasion: An American History）作者｜麥可‧卡辛（Michael Kazin）

民粹主義不只是反自由，它也反民主，它是代議政治永恆的陰影。這是揚—威爾納‧穆勒在這本睿智的書中的論點。要了解目前的民粹主義激情，沒有比這本書更好的指引了。

──國際《紐約時報》專欄作家、政治理論家｜伊凡‧卡斯特夫（Ivan Krastev）

有關歐洲最近的民主衰敗現象，沒有人寫得比揚—威爾納‧穆勒更鞭辟入裡、更充滿智慧了。在書中，穆勒直接面對全球民粹主義復興所引起的關鍵問題：它和其他形態的政治有何不同？它為什麼如此危險，以及如何克服？穆勒把民粹主義描述為是民主反多元化的道德主義陰影，是非常高明的見解。

──哈佛大學教授｜丹尼‧羅德里克（Dani Rodrik）