内容简介 l 金融市场是否确实可以用数学模型来解释？全球顶级金融专家特里亚纳用一长串强有力的证据证明了市场不能够被各种等式所驯服。因为那些标新立异、不合法规的人类行为支配着市场，出乎意料且难以想象的骇人事件则塑造了市场，所以使用历史数据来指导未来市场的方式并不可靠。 l 获得诺贝尔经济学奖的布莱克-斯科尔斯-默顿（BSM）模型无视黑天鹅事件的可能，无法预料到危险的产生，是造成金融灾难的罪魁祸首，我们还要继续迷信它们吗？鼓吹量化金融市场的学者们在象牙塔内坐井观天，以看似合理的数学公式对衍生产品交易员们的选择指手画脚，这些脱离了实践的理论有何资格获得实践者的信任？ l 市场不需要教授，市场需要“胖东尼”——重视实效、不受理论与教条奴役的金融业内人士。特里亚纳强烈呼吁用常识性方法取代基于数学的决策模型，并且呼吁让那些有实战经验而不是仅仅拥有学术理论的人们行使金融权利。 l 适合金融界人士、管理人员与投资者。 编辑推荐 l 畅销书《黑天鹅》、《反脆弱》作者纳西姆·塔勒布最为推崇的作品。他认为帕布罗· 特里亚纳是以一种清晰的思路、可嘉的勇气和无私奉献的精神为真相服务的。这本书非常难得，它揭露了模型的副作用及其带来的危害，并无所畏惧地指出我们应该前进的方向。这本书会让读者变得更加聪明，也会使我们的世界变得更加美好、更加安全并且更具风险意识。 l 从1987年的股市“黑色星期一”到美国长期资本管理公司的危机，特里亚纳用丰富的事例和强有力的论述抨击了金融市场中对量化模型的盲目追捧。“模型对，市场错”的信条无疑本末倒置，他强调，数学公式不可能归纳、预言和掌控市场的脉动。 l 本书对近几年来困扰模型的问题以及获得大量资金支持的定量技术所存在的问题进行了一次全面的解读。要是银行家们几年前就能留意这些信息，那么，今天我们也就不必面临那么多的混乱了。 l 湛庐文化出品

The ability to effectively create and interpret financial models is one of the most valued skills in corporate finance--from Wall Street to Main Street. Now, the acclaimed guide to designing, building, and implementing valuation projection models is fully revised and expanded to keep finance and accounting professionals competitive in today's marketplace. This second edition of Building Financial Models continues the tradition of its predecessor by providing a hands-on approach to creating a core model that is supported by broad coverage of cornerstone accounting and finance principles. Additionally, this updated volume features: Entirely new coverage of discounted cash flow (DCF) modeling Excel formulas for making powerful calculations within the spreadsheet In-depth explanations of both the principles and mechanics of projection models Building Financial Models helps readers practice good thinking and apply sound knowledge of their tools--two key attributes to producing robust and easy-to-use models. This practical guide takes you step by step through the entire process of developing a projection model, with a full chapter dedicated to each phase. By the end, you will have a working, dynamic spreadsheet financial model for making projections for industrial and manufacturing companies. Furthermore, this Second Edition provides the vocabulary and syntax of model building so you can tailor core models to fit any size company and allow for quick input changes to test sensitivity. The companion website www.buildingfinancialmodel.com offering example spreadsheets will give you a head start on developing your own models. A flexible and successful financial projection model does more than just add numbers--it explains the complex relationships between those numbers and illuminates ways to use those associations to add value to an enterprise. Building Financial Models is the only book you need to create and implement a fluid financial projection model that is both state of the art and user friendly.

以光速旅行，决胜于分秒之间 揭开量化投资的黑匣子，洞悉机构投资者的秘诀 量化投资方法正越来越受到广大的机构投资投资者的关注，其代表者吉姆·西蒙斯在股市下行的2008年中将25亿美元的收益收入囊中。高频交易作为量化投资的重要方法，也引起了海内外投资界的广泛兴趣。据不完全统计，2008年，采用传统低频交易的投资者有70%处于亏损，而高频交易基金经理几乎都在当年实现了盈利。 那么究竟何为高频交易？高频交易背后的原理是什么？量化投资者又是怎样利用这一工具实现惊人的收益呢？ 本书作者站在专业的高度，用平实的语言和丰富的图表，带我们走进量化投资的黑匣子，向我们展示了这台复杂的“金融仪器”是如何运作的。书中的内容涵盖了高频交易的方方面面——从形成想法并开发交易系统，到投入资金并进行表现评估——这些详实的信息将让你在如今风云诡谲的市场上更具竞争优势。

By some estimates, quantitative (or algorithmic) trading now accounts for over one-third of trading volume in the United States. While institutional traders continue to implement this highly effective approach, many independent traders—with limited resources and less computing power—have wondered if they can still challenge powerful industry professionals at their own game? The answer is "yes," and in Quantitative Trading, author Dr. Ernest Chan, a respected independent trader and consultant, will show you how. Whether you're an independent "retail" trader looking to start your own quantitative trading business or an individual who aspires to work as a quantitative trader at a major financial institution, this practical guide contains the information you need to succeed. Organized around the steps you should take to start trading quantitatively, this book skillfully addresses how to: * Find a viable trading strategy that you're both comfortable with and confident in * Backtest your strategy—with MATLAB®, Excel, and other platforms—to ensure good historical performance * Build and implement an automated trading system to execute your strategy * Scale up or wind down your strategies depending on their real-world profitability * Manage the money and risks involved in holding positions generated by your strategy * Incorporate advanced concepts that most professionals use into your everyday trading activities * And much more While Dr. Chan takes the time to outline the essential aspects of turning quantitative trading strategies into profits, he doesn't get into overly theoretical or sophisticated theories. Instead, he highlights the simple tools and techniques you can use to gain a much-needed edge over today's institutional traders. And for those who want to keep up with the latest news, ideas, and trends in quantitative trading, you're welcome to visit Dr. Chan's blog, epchan.blogspot.com, as well as his premium content Web site, epchan.com/subscriptions, which you'll have free access to with purchase of this book. As an independent trader, you're free from the con-straints found in today's institutional environment—and as long as you adhere to the discipline of quantitative trading, you can achieve significant returns. With this reliable resource as your guide, you'll quickly discover what it takes to make it in such a dynamic and demanding field.

本书论述统计套利的历史，描述了从20世纪80年代开始，这项策略自摩根士丹利诞生的第一天，一直到考验重重的21世纪初期；本书也诠释了统计套利如何运作的方式，以及为什么管用的原因。作者根据自己的研究结果，以及八年来操作统计套利避险基金的经验，写成本书，对于统计套利二十余年的发展，进行了完整的回顾。 本书充满了许多创新的信息与专家的忠告；不论是想要对这个领域有整体看法的个人投资者，或者是希望对模型化、风险管理以及如何应用这项策略，想要得到更关键而深入见解的机构投资人来说，本书所包含的重要分析，极具吸引力。